- Title: Statistical Uncertainty in the Medicare Shared Savings Program
- First Author: DeLia, Derek
- Date of Article: 2012 Q4
Full Title: Statistical Uncertainty in the Medicare Shared Savings Program
Other Authors: Donald Hoover,  Joel C. Cantor
Volume: 2012
Issue: Q4
Summary:
 According to analysis reported in “Statistical Uncertainty in the 
Medicare Shared Savings Program” published in Volume 2, Issue 4 of the 
Medicare & Medicaid Research Review, the role of random fluctuations
 in year-to-year healthcare spending may play a larger role in savings 
measurement than previously anticipated. Although CMS is fairly well 
protected from the chance that an Accountable Care Organization (ACO) 
would be rewarded inappropriately for savings that did not truly occur, 
ACOs are much less protected from the analogous chance that they are 
inappropriately denied rewards for savings that do occur. Smaller ACOs 
are especially vulnerable to the chance of being inappropriately denied 
credit for achieved savings. The article concludes with a discussion of 
strategies that can be used to anticipate and minimize the role of 
chance variation in ACO savings measurement.
Keywords: 
Medicare, Econometrics, Health Care Organizations and Systems, Health 
Economics, Health Policy / Politics / Law / Regulation, Incentives in 
Health Care, Payment Systems: FFS / Capitation / RBRVS / DRGs / Risk 
Adjusted Payments etc., Health Care Costs, Health Care Financing / 
Insurance / Premiums
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